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Forecasts from Melbourne National Weather Service (MLB)

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FXUS62 KMLB 221526 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1026 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Cold, damp, and breezy today, with morning wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s from Orlando northward. Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist. - Steady rain eases later this morning, but a few showers remain in the forecast through Thursday evening. - Even colder temperatures are expected late this week. By Saturday morning, areas of frost and bitter wind chills in the mid 20s to mid 30s, especially inland and north of Orlando. A warming trend begins Sunday into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 A cold wet, and windy start to our Wednesday across east central Florida today. Widespread rain showers are diminishing as of around 10AM from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. While areas north and west of I-4 will be the first to dry out, clouds will linger over the area through tonight. Showers are forecast to continue along the Treasure Coast through at least early afternoon. Have allowed the Wind Advisory to expire along the coast, as winds have fallen below Advisory criteria. However, breezy to windy conditions will persist through much of the day today, with buoy observations just offshore reporting gusts to 40-50mph just offshore. Fortunately, these winds are forecast to remain offshore, with gusts up to around 30mph along the immediate coast. Inland, northerly wind gusts 20-25mph will continue into the afternoon. Cold and gusty northerly winds continue to produce current wind chill values around 30 degrees in portions of Lake and Volusia Counties. Thus, have continued the Cold Weather Advisory in this area through Noon today. Elsewhere, wind chills remain above criteria. But, will remain between 30-35 degrees for Seminole and Orange Counties over the next couple of hours, despite the Cold Weather Advisory expiring there. Overall, expect an unusual cold, wet, and windy day to continue into this afternoon across east central Florida. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50s, with upper 40s across far northern portions of the area. While not explicitly forecast, will be watching the Orlando International Airport for a record cool high today. The current forecast high is 51 degrees, while the record cool high temperature for the date is 48 degrees set in 1985. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 ----------Synoptic Overview---------- A deep mid-level trough continues to reside over the Central and Eastern U.S. this morning. On its southern flank, a well-defined shortwave is racing eastward over N Florida. Widespread precipitation continues over the northern half of the state, aided by the right-rear quadrant of a 130 KT upper jet segment over Georgia and impressive frontogenetic forcing at H7. At the surface, a cold front is draped over South Florida. Antecedent cold air interacting with this weather system has caused a rare and historic winter storm with, in some cases, record snowfall extending from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas. Guidance remains in strong agreement with the overall pattern evolution through the next 72 hours. Rich moisture exits Central Florida later this morning. However, a lingering area of low-level vorticity is left behind over the E Gulf and Florida through Thursday. Weak cyclogenesis may occur over the W Atlantic by early Friday before moving well offshore. An additional shortwave is then forecast to pass over the Southeast late Friday, forcing surface high pressure into the Deep South by Saturday morning. A final surge of cold advection overtakes the state early in the weekend, with 5 KFT temperatures falling 5 to 8 deg C below normal. From late this weekend through midweek, at least medium confidence remains in our forecast. 21/12Z cluster analysis shows a classic Rex Block developing along the West Coast as the Polar Vortex remains close to Hudson Bay. The anomalous cold air entrenched over much of the nation is projected to erode, especially over the Southeast. Polar jet disturbances should remain much farther north, limiting cold frontal passages through next Wednesday (1/29) or Thursday (1/30). This pattern change may have some staying power, at least over Florida, into the first days of February. The MJO is expected to swing from phase 3 into 4 or the null phase. NAO/AO blocking appears non-existent, and the EPO is forecast to become positive, an indication that milder Pacific air should enter the U.S. Deeper into early February, long-range modeling looks very similar to La Nina analogs. The CPC two-week outlook slightly favors above-normal temperatures over Florida. ------Short-Term Mesoscale Analysis------ Precipitation intensity is expected to pick up this morning for the northern half of the district, with neutral thermal advection through around 12Z. Sounding analysis from the HREF revealed an above-critical profile for both temp and wet bulb through the lowest 10 KFT. However, ACARS and surface observations suggest the column is 1-2 deg C cooler than our guidance suggests. A few -UP (sleet) observations have been recorded in the light showers passing over Leesburg, Ocala, and Palatka. After shaving a couple of degrees off the sounding, we still largely have a rain profile due to the +6C temp at H8 and above-freezing surface temps. By 13-15Z, the column quickly dries out above H8. Light showers or drizzle may continue as low-level moisture lingers. By 14Z, a small below-critical layer exists, just above the surface, on proximity soundings at LEE. If any evaporative cooling can occur, a bit of sleet could briefly mix in across mainly northern Lake & Volusia Counties. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Through Tonight... It's nice to get a soaking rain this time of year, but it leaves much to be desired if you long for sunshine and warmth. We will contend with cold rain showers through the morning before the activity pushes off into the Atlantic by afternoon. There is a low (20%) chance for a brief rain/sleet mix over our far northern communities; no impacts are anticipated. Gusty north breezes will gift us a taste of the Arctic air mass bottled up just to our north. Wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s are expected this morning near and northwest of I-4. Later this afternoon, a few lucky spots may get a pocket of sunshine, but it will not feel all that warm. Highs today should only struggle into the low-mid 50s, except the low 60s along the Treasure Coast. Leesburg may not make it to 50F today. Not that the weather is all that inviting, but suffice to say that beach conditions remain hazardous. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for our coast along with a high risk for deadly rip currents! We kept a low (20-30%) chance for showers tonight, especially south of Cape Canaveral. By morning, a few showers may develop from Orlando southward ahead of the next weak disturbance. Quite a range in low temperatures is forecast, with upper 30s near Leesburg, mid 40s along I-4, and mid 50s by the time you reach Stuart. Thursday... There's some disagreement about the organization of a weak weather system moving over the state. At this time, scattered to numerous showers appear likely, though the activity looks light. Continued our 40-60% rain coverage. With abundant clouds, we stay chilly with 50s from the Space Coast northward. The Treasure Coast looks a little milder in the mid 60s. Showers slowly exit off our coast by late Thursday night. With clouds lingering, the temperature forecast is tricky. We went a bit above statistical guidance, but this still gives us some mid/upper 30s along and northwest of I-4. Friday-Saturday... One more wave of colder air looks to be on the way before we start to "thaw" out. Clouds are forecast to slowly scour out on Friday as high pressure drifts toward the area. Well-below-normal high temps are forecast on Friday (50s). Guidance continues to trend colder on Saturday morning. We stayed just above statistical guidance yet again, but that is not much of a consolation. Widespread low/mid 30s are forecast over the interior and all of Volusia County, moderating slightly into the upper 30s to mid 40s along the coast from Melbourne southward. Added in areas of frost over a large chunk of the district. These may be the coldest temps of the season, and sensitive vegetation will likely need some protection. In fact, there is a ~40% chance for a light freeze generally north of Orlando. Still feel there is some chance for these readings to increase a bit in subsequent forecasts, particularly considering winds are not forecast to completely relax. Unfortunately, this would result in wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s for many locales. Saturday looks bright and chilly with temps still 8-10 degrees below normal. Sunday-Wednesday... Quiet weather is forecast as any significant weather makers hold to our northwest. After one last cold morning on Sunday (upper 30s north of Orlando), statistical guidance supports seasonable temperatures through midweek. && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Gale-force wind gusts have continued this morning, so Gale Warnings have be reissued for the local Atlantic waters through 4pm. Wind gusts up to 40kts will remain possible. ...From previous discussion... As a cold front settles farther south, N winds slowly decrease to around 15-25 KT by this afternoon, then 10-15 KT tonight. Weak low pressure forming well offshore should freshen our winds again on Thursday and Friday, NW 15-20 KT. High pressure, finally, will make the winds more manageable by Saturday afternoon, NE 10-15 KT. Seas will remain rough for the rest of the work week, though the highest seas are forecast today (6-10 FT nearshore, up to 14 FT in the Gulf Stream). O n Thursday and Friday, seas subside to 4-6 FT nearshore and 5-8 FT offshore, && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 649 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Predominant IFR conditions continue across much of the area, with widespread light to moderate rainfall producing some tempo vis reductions to IFR/MVFR. This rain will gradually diminish in coverage and shift offshore through the late morning and afternoon, with cigs forecast to improve to MVFR later today. However, IFR cigs look to build back in, especially across northern portions of east central Florida overnight tonight. Northerly winds will remain breezy to windy through much of the day up to 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 25 knots, with wind speeds then gradually decreasing to 8 to 12 knots this evening, with some continuing gusts to 15 to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Friday... RH minima fall to 35-40% by afternoon northwest of I-4, amid northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Otherwise, RH values remain above critical thresholds each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 51 43 54 38 / 80 10 60 20 MCO 51 44 54 39 / 80 20 60 10 MLB 57 49 59 44 / 80 30 60 20 VRB 60 53 63 47 / 80 30 60 20 LEE 48 39 52 35 / 60 10 40 10 SFB 51 43 54 37 / 70 20 50 10 ORL 51 44 54 38 / 80 20 60 10 FPR 60 52 64 48 / 80 30 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for FLZ041-044-141- 144. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Weitlich

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