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Orion Tropical Weather Page

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

This graphic highlights any tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes that the NHC is issuing advisories on as well as invests or other weather systems discussed in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the Tropical Weather Discussion.

Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051133
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 05/0300 UTC 
AND IS CENTERED NEAR 50.7N 59.2W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 155 NM 
SW OF MARYS HARBOUR LABRADOR MOVING N-NE AT 40 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED 
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N48W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM 15N-19N 
BETWEEN 49W-52W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED... 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA 
LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N87W ALONG 23N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. HEAVY SHOWERS/NUMEROUS 
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO/ 
YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 90W-93W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE 
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT MOVES NW AT 5-10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 8W/9W MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS 
NOW A MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N20W JUST E OF 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 12N24W TO 4N36W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N23W 
TO INLAND OVER MAURITANIA AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 
27W-39W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ABOVE NEAR 7N42W 
9N51W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE SURFACE 
TROUGH/LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE E CONUS DIPS S TO THE N GULF COAST 
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1010 MB 
LOW INLAND OVER SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY 
FLORIDA TO JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. A 
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE 
LONGWAVE SE LOUISIANA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 25N87W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SW GULF NEAR 
21N95W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO 
COAST EXTENDING FROM 27N92W TO 23N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS NEAR 24N81W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST S 
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W AND INTO 
THE SW TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO OFF THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NE OF THE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS S OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE W 
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS PROVIDING  
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
INLAND OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA 
BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE NE FLOW IS ALSO GIVING THE N/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-81W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING AN AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N72W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS COVERED BY THE UPPER LOW CENTERED S 
OF PUERTO RICO TO 27N BETWEEN 55W-75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N42W WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB 
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

24 Hour Surface Forecast

This is the latest 24 hour surface forecast from the NHC showing sea level pressure, tropical waves, and any current systems.

Sea Level Pressure & Winds

This graphic from Unisys shows the GFS forecast for sea level pressure and wind vectors out to 48 hours. Click 'next' and 'previous' to cycle through the 5 available images.

Scroll through the 00, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour forecasts

Forecast Models

Computer models help show us the possibilities of how various weather sysems, such as tropical cyclones, may interact with each other. They take initial conditions and show us predictions based on the laws of physics and atmospheric equations. Each model has its own biases and shortcomings as well as its strengths. It is important to take all of this into account when using the models. Computer models are a powerful tool, but should not be used by themselves.

FSU's Tropical Model Page
PSU's Tropical Model Page
NCEP's Model Page
ARL's Model Animations Page
CSU's Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance

FNMOC Satellite Data

Click to visit the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Tropical Cyclone page.

Tropical e-Wall

Click to visit Penn State's Tropical Atlantic e-Wall page.

Atlantic Wide Water Vapor

Satellite images can show us whether or not convection is building, the effects of shear and dry air, and the general interactions of weather systems. The Atlantic Water Vapor (WV) image is shown below, but a wide selection of satellite images can be accessed from the tropical satellite page.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temps (SST)

Latest Sea Surface Temps.

This image shows the latest SST Anomalies.

Wind Shear Analysis

Wind shear is a change in wind velocity (speed and/or direction) with height. Shear can rip a tropical cyclone apart or keep one from forming by preventing the convection from building. The following images show the latest wind shear and the shear tendency - whether it is increasing or decreasing.

Shear Tendency

Upper Level Divergence

Upper level divergence is when the air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is moving away from a common area. It can induce sustained updrafts and therefore provide the exhaust system for a tropical cyclone, allowing it to strengthen.

Lower Level Convergence

Lower level convergence is when the air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is coming together in a relatively small area - the opposite of divergence. Eventually, there is nowhere for the air to go but up.

Steering Layers

The steering winds in the atmosphere can help us determine the path and speed of a tropical cyclone. One rule of thumb says that the cyclone will move in the direction of the steering currents, but at about half the speed. However, the steering layer we need to look at is based on how deep the tropical cyclone is. We can determine this from the minimum pressure and then use the appropriate image below.

Steering Layer (MSLP 1000-1010mb)

Steering Layer (MSLP 990-999mb)

Steering Layer (MSLP 970-989mb)

Steering Layer (MSLP 950-969mb)

Steering Layer (MSLP 940-949mb)

Steering Layer (MSLP 940mb or less)

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